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U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Office of Disease Prevention and Health Promotion

Reduce nonfatal child abuse and neglect — IVP‑16 Data Methodology and Measurement

On this page:  About the National Data  |  Methodology  |  History

About the National Data

Data

Data Sources:  National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System (NCANDS), ACF; Population Estimates, Census

Baseline: 9.0 victims of nonfatal child abuse and neglect per 1,000 children under 18 years were reported in 2017

Target: 8.7 per 1,000

Numerator
Number of children under 18 years reported and confirmed to be victims of nonfatal child abuse and neglect by state child welfare agencies.
Denominator
Number of children under 18 years.
Target-setting method
Projection
Target-setting method details
Linear trend fitted using ordinary least squares and a projection at the 25 percent prediction interval.
1
Target-setting method justification
Trend data were evaluated for this objective. Using historical data points, a trend line was fitted using ordinary least squares, and the trend was projected into the next decade. This method was used because three or more comparable data points were available, the projected value was within the range of possible values, and a projection at the 25 percent prediction interval was selected because it was a statistically significant improvement from the baseline.

Methodology

Methodology notes

Nonfatal maltreatment is defined as an act or failure to act by a parent, caretaker, or other person, as defined under state law, which results in serious physical or emotional harm, sexual abuse or exploitation or an act or failure to act that presents an imminent risk of serious harm. State definitions may include additional criteria. A child is considered to have been a victim of maltreatment if a "substantiated," "indicated," or "alternative response victim" disposition was recorded. These are case-level data reported in the Child File and, are therefore, a subset of all children reported. Victims with an unknown age, including unborn children, are excluded. Nonfatal child abuse and neglect rates are calculated using the July 1st estimates of the resident population from the Vintage matching the data year for the postcensal period based on the prior decennial census. For example, July 1, 2017, resident population estimates from Vintage 2017 are used as the denominator for 2017 rates.

History

Comparable HP2020 objective
Retained, which includes core objectives that are continuing from Healthy People 2020 with no change in measurement.

1. Because Healthy People 2030 objectives have a desired direction (e.g., increase or decrease), the confidence level of a one-sided prediction interval can be used as an indication of how likely a target will be to achieve based on the historical data and fitted trend.